With the recent media coverage of the risk of running out of prison places, attention has been paid to the size of the prison population in England and Wales. Recent reforms, such as The Criminal Justice Act 2003 (Requisite and Minimum Custodial Periods) Order 2024 – which reduces the proportion of most standard determinate sentences to be served in custody from 50 per cent to 40 per cent – and proposals to double the maximum amount of time that can be spent under Home Detention Curfew at the end of a custodial sentence to 12 months, have focused on accelerating the release from prison of those serving a custodial sentence. At the start of this year however, the focus was on the flow of people into custody in the first place, with the government’s proposal (ultimately not enacted) to create a presumption against sentences of 12 months or less.
In January, the Sentencing Academy sought to test the public’s knowledge of the prison population through a survey of 1,871 adults living in England and Wales, conducted by YouGov. The survey revealed a number of important misperceptions about the make-up of the prison population, most notably in greatly over-estimating both the numbers of women within the prison population and the proportion of prisoners serving a short sentence of imprisonment (defined, to align to the then-government proposal, as a sentence of 12 months or less). Respondents to the survey also demonstrated low levels of confidence in the effectiveness of imprisonment to rehabilitate offenders and reduce re-offending and also, perhaps more surprisingly, as being effective at punishing offenders.
The full report is available here.
Summary of key findings:
Most people acknowledge they know little about prisons but are aware that the prison population is higher today than a decade ago
Respondents were asked how much they know about prisons and almost two-thirds of the sample (63 per cent) stated that they knew ‘not very much’ about prisons. Approximately one-quarter (24 per cent) stated that they knew ‘a fair amount’ with the rest stating that they either knew ‘nothing at all’ (ten per cent) or ‘a great deal’ (three per cent).
However, the vast majority of respondents were aware that the prison population had risen over the past decade. Only six per cent of respondents thought that the prison population was lower today than a decade ago and 18 per cent thought that it was ‘about the same’. Interestingly, many respondents over-estimated the extent of the rise in the past ten years – perhaps not appreciating that much of the growth in the prison population had already taken place before 2014 – as the most popular answer (39 per cent) was that the prison population is ‘much higher today’. As the prison population grew by approximately four per cent during this period, the correct answer – identified by 37 per cent of respondents – is that the prison population is ‘slightly higher today’.
Most people over-estimate the proportion of women in the prison population and the percentage of short-term prisoners
The most striking misperception arising from the survey is the very significant overestimate of the proportion of women in the prison population. Women make up approximately four per cent of the prison population and this has remained relatively stable for decades. However, only seven per cent of respondents identified the correct answer that women make up less than ten per cent of the prison population; over half of respondents (53 per cent) estimated that women make up at least 30 per cent.
Another misperception revealed in this survey is an overestimate of the proportion of the prison population serving a ‘short’ sentence of 12 months or less. Such prisoners make up around five per cent of the sentenced prison population [so, not those on remand] but only two per cent of respondents correctly stated that prisoners serving a short sentence make up less than ten per cent of the prison population; 91 per cent of respondents considered that they made up at least 20 per cent and the majority (61 per cent of respondents) thought that they make up at least 40 per cent.
Many people are sceptical about the effectiveness of prisons in either punishing or rehabilitating
Finally, we asked respondents for their views on the effectiveness of prisons in punishing offenders and rehabilitating them. Over half (53 per cent) responded that imprisonment was ‘not very’ or ‘not at all’ effective in punishing offenders for their crimes. Only 37 per cent thought prisons were an effective punishment, with most respondents choosing ‘fairly’ (32 per cent) rather than ‘very’ effective. Perceptions of effectiveness were even more negative with respect to rehabilitation. Approximately three-quarters (73 per cent) chose ‘not very’ or ‘not at all’ effective. Thirteen per cent perceived prisons to be ‘fairly effective’ and only three per cent responded ‘very effective’ at achieving rehabilitation. As the government’s Sentencing Review gets underway, it may be that public scepticism about the effectiveness of imprisonment might provide space for consideration of less costly – and potentially more effective – alternatives.
